Piper on Q4 Macs, iPods

Early predictions can now be made for the number of Macs and iPods Apple will ship in its fourth financial quarter, according to Piper Jaffray. The firm's analysts say they have NPD figures from the first month's worth of Apple product sales, and believe that the company will ultimately ship between 2.7 and 2.9 million Macs, versus The Street's consensus of 2.65 million. This also translates into year-over-year growth of 25 to 29 percent, instead of The Street's 23 percent.

Piper cautions though that its numbers are of course preliminary, and could swing in unexpected directions depending on new portables Apple might announce in September.

iPod sales are currently predicted to fall in a wide gap between 10.7 and 11.2 million, whereas The Street has picked a precise 10.8 million. In terms of year-over-year growth, Piper's figures represent 5 to 10 percent; the firm notes that seasonally, the iPod is is doing far better than it normally would, and could be bolstered by the announcement of new models next month.

Piper suggests that if results fall towards the high end -- 2.9 million Macs, 11 million iPods and 4.1 million iPhones -- Apple could generate an EPS of $1.19 on $8.5 billion in revenue, assuming Apple maintains a gross margin of 32 percent. If The Street's numbers prove accurate, Apple will produce $1.11 in EPS on $8.08 billion. Apple has guided towards a $1.00 EPS on $7.8 billion. Piper does not expect a terribly large gross margin however, due to Apple's foreshadowed "product transition."

by MacNN Staff