Early NPD figures point to 3.2 million in Q3 Mac sales

updated 04:10 pm EDT, Mon May 17, 2010

iPods down, iPad having 'minimal' effect on Macs


April Mac numbers -- recorded by the NPD Group -- suggest that Apple will sell between 3.1 and 3.2 million Macs by the end of its third quarter, according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster. The estimated range is based on a 39 percent increase in domestic sales during April, and could still vary dramatically based on May and June sales, as well as international markets. If Apple manages Munster's target, the quarter will represent a growth of 19 to 23 percent year-over-year.

High sales are likely to have been a result of Apple refreshing the MacBook Pro, which now uses better graphics chipsets and the line's first Core i5 and i7 processors. The first month of the iPad is so far producing "minimal" Mac cannibalization, Munster notes, adding that Apple has "successfully limited" the device into being little more than a content consumption device. This is thought to be having some impact on the iPod, which was down 17 percent in the US in April, potentially pointing to quarterly sales of 9 to 10 million units.

For Apple and its investors, iPod cannibalization is argued to be a good thing. The average selling price (ASP) of the iPad is four times higher than that of the iPod. On top of this each tablet is thought to have a high profit margin, meaning that the iPad may be more lucrative in some respects.




by MacNN Staff


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Comments

  1. iphonerulez

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Nov 2008

    +2

    Apple isn't stupid enough to short itself...

    when it comes to revenue and profits. That's what Windows PC buyers say they can't stand about Apple. They say that Apple doesn't build one computer that does everything. Apple always leaves something out to make you buy another device. I think they do this purposely in order not to cannibalize their own line-up. Especially back when Apple's user base was very low, they just couldn't take the risk of doing such a thing. As an Apple investor, I definitely see that as a good thing.

  1. Jonathan-Tanya

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Oct 2004

    -1

    Apple stock

    I was an Apple investor back when they went through their "near-death" experience, I thought the stock was value priced and bought in, but I sold after making some money on it.

    I'm a big fan of Barabasi's "New Science of Networks"...what that predicts is that niche players, in the long run, don't survive.

    In my opinion, in the short run, you can maximize profits forcing your customers to purchase at price points they don't want...but in the long run, it doesn't work. The thing about Apple, is for various reasons, they have been priced competitively in the smartphone/mp3 player arena, and they most certainly have not been a niche player in mp3...they are the market in mp3.

    All thats been grand, and has had a great halo effect on Mac sales - which, btw, I love to see, because I'm primarily a Mac fan, and don't care as much about consumer gadgets.

    But long run, Jobs likes the high end, and that's a type of niche. And, at least so far, he hasn't hinted about any SmartPhone strategy that would take them across the whole spectrum - prepaid, non-contract markets.

    If he intends to do with smartphones, an exact repeat of what he did with Mac - not license the OS, and stick to the high end of the market...then I think in a few years from now, we are going to see some bitterness here, and wonder about what happened.

    I wouldn't invest in Apple now, its priced about right. I don't see huge upswing potential...if Jobs outlines a plan for growth and into a market ownership position, rather than niche position, then I would re-evaluate the stock.

  1. testudo

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Aug 2001

    +1

    Really?

    The estimated range is based on a 39 percent increase in domestic sales during April, and could still vary dramatically based on May and June sales, as well as international markets.


    Gotta love that. "We estimate a sales mark based on April sales. But be warned that it could change depending on how sales are in the other two months in the quarter."

  1. testudo

    Fresh-Faced Recruit

    Joined: Aug 2001

    0

    Re: Apple stock

    I know Apple doesn't care, but I've used macs since 1984. The first Mac I purchased myself was in 1992, I believe (the Classic II). I've bought Macs regularly since then, and was on an alternating cycle of every 1.5 years, between a new laptop and a new desktop.

    And now I sit, with money in hand, waiting to buy a Mac that doesn't exist. I can no longer justify $3000 for a tower computer. Nor can I justify $3000 on a laptop. Both of which is what it would cost to get the 'features' I expect (yes, expandability, dammit!).

    But while Apple can stock all sorts of iPads, iPods and iPhones of varying sizes and colors, their computer business turns into a "how many ways can we s**** our loyal following by forcing them into higher-range products" game.

    BTW, I was in need of a new battery (my third) for my 3+ year old MBP recently. I went to the Apple store at my convenience, bought it off the shelf, and took it back to my Mac and plugged it in. Hope you all with those sealed in batteries enjoy replacing them at Apple's convenience.

    Oh, right, what am I saying. No one needs user replaceable batteries anymore. It's just so 1990s.

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