Different metrics affecting projections

Apple could hit as many as 280 million iOS devices by the end of 2012, depending on which metrics are called on for the projection, says Asymco's Horace Dediu. Just using market data predicting that smartphone and tablet sales will reach 6.2 billion within the next five years, Dediu remarks that an assumption of Apple growth from 17 percent in 2011 to 20 percent in 2016 would put the company at 225 million iOS units in 2012.

Relying on current rates of Apple production ramp-up as a gauge of how the company will spend capital on new factory equipment raises the forecast to 260 million units. Apple typically sells iPhones and iPads as fast as they can be assembled, Dediu notes.

Customer behavior patterns are what might push a forecast up to the 280 million mark. "If we know the probability of upgrades and the historic split between 'new' and 'existing' users," says Dediu, "then we can roll the forecast forward." The method is considered unreliable though, as new/existing rations have varied widely over time. Dediu adds that the three methods yield growth rates of 46, 69 and 82 percent, respectively.

by MacNN Staff